A wonderful write-up! Thanks for sharing! One very important detail that you didn’t include is Peter Thiel as controlling shareholder. This company seems to be built under his exact blue-prints, making all the necessary sacrifices along the way, and not paying attention to the desires and expectations from “outside people” (short term traders). They are on a very interesting journey!
Antonio, me ha parecido un magnifico artículo. Lo acabo de leer por primera vez y sé que debo leerlo un par o tres de veces más para poder aprovecharlo. Interesante la comparación con Walmart (otra empresa a estudiar), IBM una trampa a no caer en ello, el planteamiento sobre los peligros internos existentes (importante). Un estudio cualitativo impecable y muy interesante (como en Meta). A ver si vuelves a animarte a hacer una presentación en youtube o en un canal en directo.
Hi Antonio, very insightful write-up. Loonshot ideas being bred or even just incubated by companies such as AMD is what investing in these companies is all about. You mentioned edge AI a few times and how chiplets are more efficient to handle pervasive AI especially at the edge. I was wondering if you’ve ever heard the term neuromorphic chips (from what I read, sounds like a new type of chiplet) which makes better “inferences” by filtering out more noise and with 2x less power consumption. Extremely important for battery operated devices! With your knowledge of AMD, do you know if they are working on such a thing? Should they be? Intel is working on one, but I believe ARM, together with their technological partner Brainchip LTD., has the only commercially available neuromorphic chip on the market so far. This may be the next loonshot idea for moving electrons efficiently. Would love your thoughts.
Regarding the thesis "People are really tired of being super positive in the face of adversity."
How did you consider an alternative rationale for where we are and the influence of media, particularly conservative media. Even prior to the onset of inflation and the Fed's change in rates and how that has reverberating thru the stock markets (i.e. markets were up, unemployment was low, wages were rising, covid was managed as best as possible (recognizing right leaning resistance/messaging)...all things that if Trump were in office would be touted/tweeted all day every day as positive signs in the market. Yet the tone now was/is "doomsday"...and again that was all before rising Fed rates, lowering stock market, pending recession. Why? People have been getting fed HEAVY doses from conservative media of "doom" when many of the same indicators a couple of years previously were evidence of a great economy. Just saying...
Outstanding deal value grew from 2.8B in 2020 to 3.8B in 2021, rate of 35%, consistent with their revenue growth rate. What numbers are you referring to?
While their revenue keeps growing nicely at their predicted 30+% rate, their outstanding deal value is not growing fast. That makes me wonder if they can really keep the growth up?
Great Article: Some thoughts: Capital Allocation: Karp right now is focused on re-engineering PLTR so his big brain will develop a new optimized model for the company and he will allocate capital strategically and efficiently which is a key to long term returns
Try these lenses on in your analysis: Look at the high rate of change in all the different areas of the company? High Rate of Change: Innovation, Bootcamps/distribution, Margin improvement, New Contracts, Customers, New Industry footholds etc. Implications from rate of change: Eventually will lead to a hockey stick in revenue, MOAT/Barrier to entry Grows bigger and faster, New Solutions & Industries become "gotta haves" to be competitive.
Last observation: Barrier to Exit is also very high, Land & Expand the Expand portion will experience a big rate of change increase, Revenue will Experience a great Rate of Change Increase, Government contracts will rate of change increase, and Stock Price will see a great rate of change
Just came across this article. Was wondering if you could update it and include your thoughts on 1) How Palantir has become critical in Ukraine's fight for survival and what that means going forward and 2) how generative AI, LLM's etc will further improve their product offerings.
A wonderful write-up! Thanks for sharing! One very important detail that you didn’t include is Peter Thiel as controlling shareholder. This company seems to be built under his exact blue-prints, making all the necessary sacrifices along the way, and not paying attention to the desires and expectations from “outside people” (short term traders). They are on a very interesting journey!
Antonio, me ha parecido un magnifico artículo. Lo acabo de leer por primera vez y sé que debo leerlo un par o tres de veces más para poder aprovecharlo. Interesante la comparación con Walmart (otra empresa a estudiar), IBM una trampa a no caer en ello, el planteamiento sobre los peligros internos existentes (importante). Un estudio cualitativo impecable y muy interesante (como en Meta). A ver si vuelves a animarte a hacer una presentación en youtube o en un canal en directo.
Hi Antonio, very insightful write-up. Loonshot ideas being bred or even just incubated by companies such as AMD is what investing in these companies is all about. You mentioned edge AI a few times and how chiplets are more efficient to handle pervasive AI especially at the edge. I was wondering if you’ve ever heard the term neuromorphic chips (from what I read, sounds like a new type of chiplet) which makes better “inferences” by filtering out more noise and with 2x less power consumption. Extremely important for battery operated devices! With your knowledge of AMD, do you know if they are working on such a thing? Should they be? Intel is working on one, but I believe ARM, together with their technological partner Brainchip LTD., has the only commercially available neuromorphic chip on the market so far. This may be the next loonshot idea for moving electrons efficiently. Would love your thoughts.
Regarding the thesis "People are really tired of being super positive in the face of adversity."
How did you consider an alternative rationale for where we are and the influence of media, particularly conservative media. Even prior to the onset of inflation and the Fed's change in rates and how that has reverberating thru the stock markets (i.e. markets were up, unemployment was low, wages were rising, covid was managed as best as possible (recognizing right leaning resistance/messaging)...all things that if Trump were in office would be touted/tweeted all day every day as positive signs in the market. Yet the tone now was/is "doomsday"...and again that was all before rising Fed rates, lowering stock market, pending recession. Why? People have been getting fed HEAVY doses from conservative media of "doom" when many of the same indicators a couple of years previously were evidence of a great economy. Just saying...
Outstanding deal value grew from 2.8B in 2020 to 3.8B in 2021, rate of 35%, consistent with their revenue growth rate. What numbers are you referring to?
While their revenue keeps growing nicely at their predicted 30+% rate, their outstanding deal value is not growing fast. That makes me wonder if they can really keep the growth up?
Thank you, Antonio. Very interesting and helps to fill in the gaps in understanding the prospects of the company
pretty deep dive, you should take a look codestrap for quick product tour of PTLR
I chose your write-up over readind the recent 10k after reading your write up on PATH.
Thank you for your in depth research and opinion on PLTR
Looking forward reading your write-ups on the earings, you covered them all
Great Article: Some thoughts: Capital Allocation: Karp right now is focused on re-engineering PLTR so his big brain will develop a new optimized model for the company and he will allocate capital strategically and efficiently which is a key to long term returns
Try these lenses on in your analysis: Look at the high rate of change in all the different areas of the company? High Rate of Change: Innovation, Bootcamps/distribution, Margin improvement, New Contracts, Customers, New Industry footholds etc. Implications from rate of change: Eventually will lead to a hockey stick in revenue, MOAT/Barrier to entry Grows bigger and faster, New Solutions & Industries become "gotta haves" to be competitive.
Last observation: Barrier to Exit is also very high, Land & Expand the Expand portion will experience a big rate of change increase, Revenue will Experience a great Rate of Change Increase, Government contracts will rate of change increase, and Stock Price will see a great rate of change
Again thanks for the great deep dive
Very good article about Palantir.
awesome! very good read. any updates on PLTR now in mid 2023?
Just came across this article. Was wondering if you could update it and include your thoughts on 1) How Palantir has become critical in Ukraine's fight for survival and what that means going forward and 2) how generative AI, LLM's etc will further improve their product offerings.
Thank you for your interest in Blackberry.
Subscription churn and implied GM on Hardware.
¿What about overheating problems with GoPro?
Why Everyone is Abandoning GoPro
https://youtu.be/mFODw4TSDZI